The Gerontologist, Vol 35, Issue 2 150-161, Copyright © 1995 by The Gerontological Society of America

ARTICLES

The risk of mortality among older adults over an eight-year period

FD Wolinsky, RL Johnson and TE Stump
Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, USA.

Mortality risks over an 8-year period are assessed among the 7,527 older adults interviewed as part of the Longitudinal Study on Aging. Using a modified version of the behavioral model, hierarchical methods are used to sequentially introduce the predisposing and enabling characteristics, disease history, disabilities and functional limitations, perceived health, and health services utilization both at and after baseline. Based on their partial r statistics (shown in parentheses), the proportional hazard analyses identify the mean annual number of hospital episodes after baseline (.13), age (.07), female gender (-.05), non-kin social supports (-.03), body mass (-.03), and having a history of diabetes (.03) as the six most salient predictors. These six variables account for 80% of the overall model fit.

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