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A First Look at Retirement Migration Trends in 2000

Correspondence: Address correspondence to Charles F. Longino, Jr., Ph.D., Reynolda Gerontology Program, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109. E-mail: longino{at}wfu.edu

	Abstract

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Purpose: This brief report takes a look at the preliminary estimates of the number and proportion of migrants over the age of 60 who moved to and from states between 1995 and 2000 and compares these estimates with those who made the same kind of move one decade earlier. Design and Methods: The 2000 census 1-in-100 public-use microdata sample, released in the summer of 2003, and the 1-in-20 sample from the 1990 census, were compared in this analysis. Point estimates of 100% were created for the inflows and outflows for the top 10 states in these two census decades. Net migration was also considered. Results: The total estimated number of older interstate migrants increased to over 2 million during the 1995–2000 migration period. Florida declined slightly in its position as the dominant destination for a second decade, indicating a downward trend for the first time. Arizona became the second largest receiving state, next to Florida, and California approached New York's dominance as a migration origin, or sending, state. Nevada entered the top ranking retirement states for the first time. Implications: Long-term migration dynamics of the older population may reflect perceived shifts in quality of life in destination states. Nonetheless, the next two decades will see a substantial rise in the number of older migrants.

Key Words: Interstate migration • Postretirement • Geographical distribution

The governor of the state of Florida recently established a commission to find ways of increasing retirement migration to that state, fearing that it was losing its competitive edge as the leading destination state for retirees (Department of Elder Affairs, 2003). Anxiety surrounding the potential impact of declining numbers of retired migrants is rooted primarily in two observations. The first is that retirement migration has historically been concentrated in a relatively few states. In each census from 1960 to 1980, approximately 60% of the interstate migrants over the age of 60 settled in just 10 states. In 1990, however, the proportion dropped to 56% (Longino, 2001). The leading destinations were spreading out, becoming slightly less concentrated. As a result, leading destination states could no longer take their attractiveness for granted. A sense of competition ensued.

The second observation is that, where migration is concentrated, the migrants transfer much income to the destination state, income that is largely spent locally and circulates within the economy. The annual (1989) income of inmigrants who lived in Florida in 1990 but who had lived in another state in 1985, for example, was $8.3 billion. There is an economic cost, therefore, to losing a state's competitive edge in attracting older migrants (Longino, 1995).

	Methods

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In 1960 the Census Bureau responded to the increasing number of requests for custom tabulation by providing a 1-in-100 sample of census records for public use. By using this sample, those with relevant questions could answer them by producing their own custom tabulations. The Census Bureau's microdata program was born. Such samples have continued to be produced since 1960, usually in the third year after the census. The recent release of the 2000 1% public-use microdata sample (PUMS) affords an opportunity to bring our knowledge up to date concerning state migration patterns among older adults in the United States.

The PUMS data are based on a full census sample of persons selected to complete the long-form questionnaire. An overall sampling rate of 1 in 6 characterized the full census sample, though the sampling rate varied across defined geographic areas. Within each state, a series of subsamples, each equal to 1% of the population, was drawn from the full census sample by use of a stratified systematic selection procedure. One of these subsamples was randomly designated as the 1% PUMS within each state.

Of special note, the Census Bureau has constructed weights for each PUMS respondent by means of a four-stage ratio-adjustment process. These weights allow for the construction of 100% point estimates with respect to individual characteristics.

The census mobility item asks where one lived 5 years before the census. This 5-year span is called a "migration period." We selected into our file all persons aged 60 and over at the time of the census who had lived in a different state within the United States 5 years earlier. We did not include those who had lived abroad. Previously published results from the 1990 census are provided for comparison (Longino, 1995).

	Results

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Table 1 displays the estimated number and proportion of interstate migrants over the age of 60 who moved into each of the top 10 states in the 5-year migration periods prior to the 1990 and 2000 censuses. The estimated number of persons over the age of 60 who had moved across state lines, 1995–2000, was 2,074,857; this was a 9% increase over the 1985–1990 estimate of 1,901,105.

In 2000, Florida and the Pacific Coast states had a lower share, and southern Atlantic Coast and desert states gained more than other states. Florida dipped for the first time below a 20% (19.0) share of all older migrants. In fact, Florida experienced the sharpest decline, receiving an estimated 57,000 fewer inmigrants in the 1995–2000 migration period than it did between 1985 to 1990, and yet it maintains a commanding lead in the retirement migration sweepstakes. California declined in relative and absolute terms and appears to have lost its second place standing, replaced by Arizona. Another Pacific Coast state, Washington, was pushed out of the top 10 in 2000, even though the state attracted only slightly fewer older inmigrants (46,503) than it had in the previous migration period (47,084).

The "New West" is often touted as a rising retirement region (Frey, 2000). This region includes primarily desert and mountain states. Arizona, which anchors this region in the south, has been prominent for five decades among the leading destination states (Longino, 1995), joined in 2000 by Nevada, which joined the top 10 states with a sixth place ranking. Other states in the region, if they are growing in popularity, have not yet risen into the top rankings.

Table 2 displays the estimates of the number of migrants who flow out of the top 10 sending states, the fountainhead of retirement migration in the United States. The rankings in 2000 remained essentially the same as those in 1990. There was a numeric decline in the estimated number of outmigrants from the states of New York, Illinois, and New Jersey, and a corresponding jump by California and Florida. Florida losses increased from roughly 128,000 to 172,000, in a comparison of the 5 years prior to the 1990 and 2000 censuses, respectively. It was once thought that a state was either a major origin or destination state. It has been clear for three decades (Longino, 1995) that a state can rank high on both lists. Each decade since 1960, California has increased as a sending state, so that now California is threatening New York's dominance in that category. The surprise finding is that Florida is closing on California.

The 1990 and 2000 net migration rankings remain nearly unchanged. The most notable change was the loss of the Pacific Northwest states of Washington and Oregon.

	Implications

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Migration in general is viewed as a population mechanism that redistributes the labor supply as local economies rise and fall over time. Can the migration dynamics of the older population be viewed in a similar way? With respect to persons of retirement age, individuals typically move (a) to warmer climates (Biggar, 1979), (b) down the metropolitan hierarchy to smaller cities and towns (Longino, 1995), and (c) from higher to lower cost-of-living areas (Fournier, Rasmussen, & Serow, 1988). The incipient new trend is deconcentration.

In short, so long as there is a perceived difference in quality of life in the environments at origin and destination, the better quality of life will attract new residents who are retired. When the difference narrows, however, it begins to choke off inmigration and generates pressure for retirement outmigration from the destination.

The take-home lesson of this discussion is that the strategic planner should not forget to consider the long-term as well as the short-term prospects for the quality of life when considering retirement migration. Unplanned and uncontrolled housing development for retirees may attract new inmigrants in the short term but render it impossible to deliver the quality of life that older migrants may be looking for. These considerations may be especially important for the future generation that values personal space, convenience, and quality more highly than earlier generations did.

Readers are of course urged to interpret these results cautiously. When the U.S. Census Bureau releases the next microdata samples for analysis in 2013, the baby boom will have begun retiring, and, even if there is a decline in the proportion of persons who make retirement moves, the numbers of older migrants will increase precipitously for two census decades. Industries and services that cater to new residents are likely to be enlivened by this movement. Florida, which seems, from the 2000 data at least, to be in decline, should take heart. The rising tide of retirement migration will raise all ships, including Florida.

	Footnotes

 
The research reported in this paper was supported by a grant from Wake Forest University.

¹ Reynolda Gerontology Program, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC.

² Department of Sociology, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC.

Decision Editor: Linda S. Noelker, PhD

Received for publication June 16, 2003. Accepted for publication August 12, 2003.

	References

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• Biggar, J. C., 1979;. The sunning of America: Migration to the Sunbelt. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.
• Department of Elder Affairs, State of Florida., 2003;. Final report of the "Destination Florida" Commission. Tallahassee, FL: Author.
• Fournier, G. M., Rasmussen, D. W., Serow, W. J., 1988;. Elderly migration as a response to economic incentives. Social Science Quarterly,. 69:245-260.
• Frey, W. H., DeVol, R. C., 2000;. America's demography in the new century: Aging baby boomers and new immigrants as major players (Policy Brief). Santa Monica, CA: Milken Institute.
• Longino, C. F., Jr. 1995;. Retirement migration in America. Houston, TX: Vacation Publications.
• Longino, C. F., Jr. 2001;. Geographical distribution and migration. In R. H. Binstock & L. K. George (Eds.), Handbook of aging and the social sciences (5th ed., pp. 103–124). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
• U.S. Bureau of the Census., 2003;. Census 2000, public use microdata sample (PUMS), United States, technical documentation. Retrieved June 8, 2003, from http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/doc/pums.pdf.

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